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*Division of Renal Diseases, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island;
Institute of Medical Biology and Human Genetics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; and
Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Ruperto Carola University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Correspondence to Dr. Andrew G. Bostom, Division of Renal Diseases, Rhode Island Hospital, 593 Eddy Street, Providence, RI 02903. Phone: 401-444-6460; Fax: 401-444-6849; E-mail: abostom{at}lifespan.org
| Abstract |
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1.5 mg/dl were compared with standard iohexol GFR values. The most accurate results were obtained with the Cockroft-Gault and Bjornsson equations. The most precise formulae were the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equations, although they were highly biased. Even the most accurate results exhibited levels of error that made them suboptimal for clinical treatment of these patients. These results suggest that measurement of GFR with endogenous or exogenous filtration markers might be the most prudent strategy for the assessment of renal function in the CKD population with normal serum creatinine levels. Further studies are needed to confirm the generalizability of these findings for this patient subgroup. | Introduction |
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A far more common method has been to estimate renal function by using specifically designed prediction equations based on demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, race, and weight, and biochemical indices, including serum creatinine, urea, and albumin levels. Of these, probably the most frequently applied formula is that proposed by Cockroft and Gault (3). Regardless of whether these equations were derived to predict creatinine clearance (38) or GFR (9,10), they all use and are influenced by the serum creatinine level. Serum creatinine levels are greatly dependent on dietary intake, total muscle mass, the use of certain medications that can interfere with renal creatinine handling, and renal and extrarenal excretion, all of which might be altered in chronic kidney disease (CKD) (11). In fact, serum creatinine levels can be insensitive markers of true renal function in CKD. One study assessing the reliability of filtration markers in CKD noted that a >50% reduction in glomerular ultrafiltration needed to occur before the serum creatinine level increased above normal levels (defined as serum creatinine levels of >1.4 mg/dl) (12). Therefore, many patients with CKD maintain serum creatinine levels in the normal range despite having significantly impaired renal function.
Although previous studies focused on validating these prediction equations among patients with elevated serum creatinine levels and in other subpopulations (9,1315), these equations have not been tested in a CKD population with normal-range serum creatinine levels. This study aimed to address this issue by comparing the results of renal function prediction equations with iohexol GFR measurements (16) for a population of subjects with documented CKD and serum creatinine levels of
1.5 mg/dl.
| Materials and Methods |
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1.5 mg/dl. These subjects demonstrated the following primary CKD diagnoses: glomerulonephritis, n = 64 (58.7%); polycystic kidney disease, n = 9 (8.3%); pyelonephritis, n = 6 (5.5%); other, n = 19 (17.4%); unknown, n = 11 (10.1%). The majority (93%) of the 227 patients who were originally diagnosed as having glomerulonephritis demonstrated biopsy-proven disease. Exclusion criteria included diabetes mellitus, malignancies, liver, thyroid, or infectious diseases at the time of recruitment, organ transplantation, allergies against ionic contrast media, and pregnancy. Serum and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid-treated plasma were promptly separated from whole blood that had been collected after an overnight (12-h) fast and were frozen at -80°C before analysis. Serum albumin levels were measured with the bromocresol green method, using a kit obtained from Boehringer Mannheim (Mannheim, Germany). Serum creatinine levels were determined with the Jaffe method adapted for autoanalyzers. All laboratories were subject to external quality control assessments, and results were well within the serum creatinine concentration limits dictated by regulatory agencies [i.e., precision coefficients of variation (CV) of <6% for repeated measurements and accuracies of <10%]. Depending on the serum creatinine level, two or three blood samples were collected for determination of the true GFR (expressed as milliliters per minute per 1.73 m2) with the plasma iohexol clearance method, as described by Gaspari et al. (16). Between- and within-run CV for the key analytes (i.e., iohexol and urinary protein levels) were consistent with data reported elsewhere (16,18,19). Specifically, CV for all assays were between 5 and 10%.
Predicted renal function was calculated by using eight previously published equations (310). All except the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equations (9,10), which measure GFR, were originally designed to calculate creatinine clearance. The cutoff level for serum creatinine concentrations was defined a priori as
1.5 mg/dl, because this value is at or slightly above the upper limit for most clinical laboratories.
The accuracy of prediction equations includes components of bias and precision. Bias is any systematic nonrandom deviation causing a prediction error and was calculated as the mean prediction error (ME) (20), which was defined as
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where pei is the predicted value - the true value.
The precision of equations is assessed on the basis of the degree of spread of the series of observations and is reflected by the amount of expected variation in the estimates. This is measured with the R2 statistic, which indicates the overall fit of the model (21). The accuracy of each equation, or how well it represents the true renal function, was assessed by comparing its results with those of the standard method (in this case, the iohexol GFR). This was performed by using the following equation: [predicted value - true value (i.e., iohexol measurement)]x 100/iohexol measurement. For each equation, the number of subjects with predicted GFR values within 30 or 50% of the iohexol GFR was then tallied.
| Results |
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| Discussion |
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The most accurate renal function estimates were derived by using the Cockroft-Gault and Bjornsson equations, with approximately 60% of their results being within 30% and 90% being within 50% of the true GFR (as measured with the iohexol clearance technique). In some respects, it is reassuring that the most commonly used equation (i.e., the Cockroft-Gault equation) is at least as good as the others in terms of its predictive capability. These data, however, are also disquieting. They suggest that, even with the most accurate predictions, four of 10 patients would demonstrate predicted renal function at least 30% higher or lower than actual renal function. What are the clinical implications of these results? Let us suppose that a patient exhibits a serum creatinine level of 1.2 mg/dl and CKD has been diagnosed on the basis of proteinuria and cellular casts. Let us also presume that the actual GFR is 80 ml/min per 1.73 m2. If any of these prediction equations are used to estimate renal function, then there is a
40% chance that the prediction would be <56 or >104 ml/min per 1.73 m2.
Of note, the accuracy of each equation must also be understood in the context of both its precision and its bias. Precision is based on the overall spread of the observations (the smaller the spread, the greater the precision). Bias is a systematic deviation that may cause typical predictions to be either too high or too low. Bias varies of course, depending on the circumstances under which the measurements are made. For example, one potential source of bias involves the well documented differences among laboratories in the calibration of assays used to measure serum creatinine levels (22). Because the creatinine level is a heavily weighted variable in most of these equations, these differences would affect prediction results. However, because bias is a systematic deviation, it can be corrected for with correction factors that are multiplied by the prediction formula results. Poor precision cannot be corrected for in this manner, however. The use of these correction factors can potentially improve the accuracy of the formulae, particularly if their precision is high (e.g., the MDRD Study equations). The issue of how to improve the overall accuracy of these prediction equations then arises. It is obviously not feasible to derive a specific correction factor for each equation in each laboratory. Standardization of the calibration of creatinine measurements in all laboratories can be considered, but this would require much time and effort. Furthermore, even this step would not remove other sources of bias.
An alternative strategy would be to use other, more accurate, renal function markers for these particular patients with CKD. Endogenous filtration markers, such as cystatin C (a protein that is produced by nucleated cells at a constant rate and is then filtered by glomeruli), do exist. Cystatin C measurements have been observed to be more closely correlated with GFR (2325) and better able to detect mild reductions in GFR, compared with serum creatinine levels (26,27). However, the superiority of cystatin C measurements has not been formally validated in a population with documented CKD and normal serum creatinine levels. Alternatively, the use of highly accurate, exogenous renal filtration markers, whose application has traditionally been limited by cumbersome technique, expense, and radioactivity (among other factors), can be considered (2). In the past decade, a renal filtration marker without many of these limitations has gained prominence. Iohexol is a contrast agent that has been very well correlated with standard GFR markers (28,29); it is relatively inexpensive, nonradioactive (28), and safe to use in special patient populations, including those with severe renal insufficiency (30,31). Its ease of use is notable, because no urine samples are needed and, for patients with GFR of >40 ml/min per 1.73 m2, only one plasma sample (obtained a few hours after the iohexol injection) is required (32). Determination of true GFR with iohexol measurements might thus be an accurate, inexpensive, safe, and relatively easy method to apply to the CKD population with normal serum creatinine levels.
The generalizability of our results is limited by the fact that no diabetic, black, or very elderly subjects were included in the study population. Additionally, the equations studied were meant to predict either GFR or creatinine clearance. Because of concerns that creatinine clearance assessments systematically overestimate GFR, some researchers comparing the two have adjusted the creatinine clearance equations to correct for bias (9). However, because the two types of equations are often used interchangeably in general clinical practice to assess "renal function," we decided against this adjustment.
In conclusion, our analysis of the predictive performance of renal function equations for a CKD population with normal serum creatinine levels demonstrated that the most accurate results were obtained with the Cockroft-Gault equation, whereas the most precise formula was the MDRD Study equation. Unfortunately, the predictive capabilities of these formulae were suboptimal for ideal patient care. These results suggest that direct measurements of renal function, using either endogenous or exogenous filtration markers, might be the best way to consistently obtain accurate assessments of renal function for these patients. Further studies are needed to confirm the generalizability of our findings for this common subgroup of patients.
| Acknowledgments |
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| References |
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